MALKIEL, Burton G.; John G. Cragg.
The Journal of Finance: The Consensus and Accuracy of Some Predictions of the Growth of Corporate Earnings.
University of Chicago: The Journal of Finance , 1968.
We're sorry, this item has sold.
+$450
An Offprint of the March 1968 Issue of The Journal of Finance, Containing John G. Cragg and Burton Malkiel's "The Consensus and Accuracy of Some Predictions of the Growth of Corporate Earnings"; Signed by Him and From His Own Personal Collection
Rare offprint of the March 1968 issue of The Journal of Finance, containing John G. Cragg and Burton Malkiel's article "The Consensus and Accuracy of Some Predictions of the Growth of Corporate Earnings." Octavo, original wrappers, volume 23. Boldly signed by Burton Malkiel on the front wrapper. Burton Gordon Malkiel (born 1932) is one of the most consequential financial economists of the postwar American academy, whose career as scholar, institutional leader, and public intellectual has made him a central figure at the intersection of investment theory, market efficiency, and public policy. Educated at Harvard and Princeton, where he spent the most productive decades of his career as Chemical Bank Chairman’s Professor of Economics, Malkiel also served as Dean of the Yale School of Management from 1981 to 1988 and as a member of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers under Gerald Ford from 1975 to 1977. His scholarly output encompasses foundational contributions across the term structure of interest rates, convertible security valuation, corporate capital structure, closed-end fund discounts, mutual fund performance, and gender pay differentials in professional employment, producing a body of work whose empirical breadth places him among the most versatile financial economists of his generation. His long service on the board of directors of The Vanguard Group connects his academic advocacy for passive investing to the institutional infrastructure that has most fully realized it in practice. It is nevertheless A Random Walk Down Wall Street, first published in 1973 and now in its thirteenth edition, that secured his place in the broader culture: a work of lucid, empirically grounded argument for market efficiency and index fund investing that has sold over 1.5 million copies and permanently altered the investment behavior of millions of individual investors worldwide. From the personal collection of Burton Malkiel. In near fine condition.
"The Consensus and Accuracy of Some Predictions of the Growth of Corporate Earnings," co-authored with John G. Cragg and published in The Journal of Finance, Volume 23, Number 1, March 1968, is a foundational empirical study in the literature on earnings forecasting and market efficiency that has remained a touchstone reference in the field for more than half a century. The research was supported by the Institute for Quantitative Research in Finance, the National Science Foundation, and the Graduate School of Business at the University of Chicago, reflecting the broad institutional interest at the time in bringing rigorous quantitative methods to bear on questions of financial prediction and market behavior. The paper examines the earnings growth forecasts produced by professional securities analysts for a large sample of corporations, asking two interrelated questions: how much consensus exists among professional forecasters in their predictions of corporate earnings growth, and how accurate are those predictions relative to both naive statistical models and to realized outcomes. The answers Cragg and Malkiel produced were deeply consequential for the developing literature on market efficiency and the value of active investment management: professional analysts showed considerable agreement with one another in their forecasts, yet their predictions proved no more accurate than simple extrapolative models based on historical earnings data alone, a finding whose implications for the efficient market hypothesis and the rational pricing of growth stocks Malkiel would continue to develop in subsequent work, most accessibly in 'A Random Walk Down Wall Street'. The paper was subsequently reprinted in 'The Handbook of Corporate Earnings Expectations Analysis'.
The Journal of Finance: The Consensus and Accuracy of Some Predictions of the Growth of Corporate Earnings.
Out of Stock